STRATEGY CALCULATOR
Calculate your strategy's expectancy, optimal position sizing, drawdown risk, and risk of ruin.
Input Parameters
Probability of winning a trade
Average win / average loss
% of capital risked per trade
Expectancy
Average profit per trade in R units
Full formula: (W × AvgWin) − (L × AvgLoss) − Costs
Kelly Criterion
Theoretical optimal risk
Drawdown Risk
Expected worst-case drawdown
Risk of Ruin
Probability of account ruin
Detailed Analysis
| Win Rate | 60% |
| Loss Rate | 40% |
| Reward:Risk Ratio | 1.5R |
| Expectancy Formula | (0.60 × 1.5R) − (0.40 × 1R) = 0.500R |
| Assumes Avg Loss = 1R (your full risk). Real expectancy also subtracts trading costs (commissions, fees, slippage). | |
| Per $100 risked, expect to make | $50.00 |
| Trades needed for $1000 profit (avg) | 21 |
⚠️ WARNING: Dangerously Close to Ruin
At 8.3% risk, you survive 12 losses — just above the typical worst streak of 11 but below the extreme worst case of 13. There is little margin for error. Consider reducing risk.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information presented here is general in nature and is not specific to you, the user.
Trading and investing in financial markets involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before making any trading decisions.
You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions. The author is not a licensed financial advisor, broker, or dealer. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.