Simulators, calculators & probabilistic tools that changed the way I think about trading.
Some I build for fun, others to study and observe specific behaviors or market or human dynamics. I'm fascinated by probability, behavior, chance, and uncertainty... the subtle forces that sit at the core of every market..
…understanding what is within my control, and what isn't
Visualize every path a managed trade can take. Build an interactive decision tree of immutable trade Realities, edit stops, targets, scale-ins and probabilities on any node, and watch Expected Value and the full outcome distribution update live.
Calculate how partial scale-outs on stops and targets change your effective R and expectancy. Compare scaled vs simple setups with live equity curve simulation.
Orders drop, volume builds, a distribution emerges. Drag the drop point, watch the mean shift, and see how the probability distribution reshapes with every trade.
A meditation tool combining coherence breathing, EMDR eye movement patterns, and rhythm. Regulate your nervous system before, during or after trading sessions.
Visualize how sample size influences personal probability resuts. See how small samples decieve and how luck dominates short-term outcomes, and how larger samples converge toward more predictable patterns.
Volatility-driven contract sizing for Sierra Chart. Monitors volume distribution and rotation size to keep risk consistent across changing market conditions.
Play very simplified trading game as a cookie clicker game. Play at fake speed and observe your equity curve and how it may actually play out. Set your win rate, R-multiple and risk mode. Bet on heads or tails to simulate the experience in real time.
Calculate your strategy's expectancy, optimal position sizing, risk of ruin and see possible equity journeys of your system to be prepared and adjust risk management accordingly to your specific needs.
Analyze company fundamentals using key financial health metrics derived from financial statements, and perform discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation. Designed to identify high-quality assets and optimal entry points for long-term investing; not short-term trading.
Compare trading your own capital vs prop firm challenges. See how distributed risk across multiple accounts can amplify your returns.
My notes on the math and psychology behind these tools, still a work in progress.
Notes